The classification phase of the PBA Fiesta Conference ended last night with two tiebreaker games: the Coca-Cola Tigers beat the Alaska Aces, 81-74 to gain 8th, while the Barangay Ginebra Kings beat the living crap out of the Rain or Shine Elastopainters, 114-71, to get the 2nd seed.

The tiebreakers were important because the 2nd seed gains an automatic spot in the semifinals, while the 3rd seed has to qualify in the wildcards. The 8th place is also a much better spot than the 9th, which comes with a twice-to-win disadvantage against the 4th seed. The bracket below clears things up a little:



After the jump, my playoff predictions and my pick to win the championship.

Wildcard round: #3 Rain or Shine vs. #10 Barako Bull

I almost feel sorry for Barako Bull coach Leo Isaac and his players, but this team absolutely deserves to be in the cellar for selling their players to the league's richer teams. They're already the worst team in the league, but Rain or Shine is a particularly bad matchup for Barako Bull because they don't have anyone who can handle Jai Lewis.

Prediction: Rain or Shine in 1


Wildcard round: #4 Burger King vs. #9 Alaska

Alaska hasn't had any rhythm all conference long, despite the return of the prolific Rosell Ellis, who led the team to the championship in the same conference two years ago. I don't know if it's the hangover from their seven-game loss to Talk N Text in the last Philippine Cup, or the knee injury to Sonny Thoss, but the Aces just haven't been the same. They looked terribly tired in their tiebreaker against Coca-Cola, and Willie Miller has probably booked his Boracay vacation. Burger King, with their run-and-gun attack, should make quick work of Alaska.

Prediction: Burger King in 1


Wildcard round: #5 Sta. Lucia vs. #8 Coca-Cola

The last time these two teams met, Coca-Cola won handily as Sta. Lucia was missing the services of Kelly Williams, Ryan Reyes, and Bitoy Omolon. Williams is out for the season, but Reyes and Omolon are back, and that would make all the difference. Sta. Lucia's Anthony Johnson and Coke's James Penny are two of the best imports this conference, and they'll cancel each other out. The Realtors' backcourt trio of Reyes, Denok Miranda, and Joseph Yeo should be able to dominate against the Tigers, and remember that Marlou Aquino always plays well in playoff games against Asi Taulava.

Prediction: Sta. Lucia wins the knockout game


Wildcard round: #6 Talk N Text vs. #7 Purefoods

My heart says that Purefoods will win this game, and go on a miracle run to win the Fiesta Conference Championship. But my head knows that there's a reason the team has not gotten out of the wildcard phase in three of the last four tournaments, despite having the best two-man combination in the league with James Yap and Kerby Raymundo. I'll probably be watching this game live, rooting my heart out for my team, and booing the fuck out of Mac Cardona. But Talk N Text will probably win, and then I'll be rooting for Purefoods management to finally fire Ryan Gregorio.

Prediction: Talk N Text wins the knockout game


Quarterfinals: #4 Burger King vs. #5 Sta. Lucia

Sta. Lucia will give a good fight, but here's where they'll miss the presence of Kelly Williams. Burger King just has a lot of depth to throw at Johnson, and their guards are big and physical and would not allow themselves to be bullied by the Sta. Lucia backcourt.

Prediction: Burger King in 3


Quarterfinals: ##3 Rain or Shine vs. #6 Talk N Text

Chot Reyes is actually a pretty good coach, if you can get past the fact that he dresses up like a high-class male prostitute. He's smart enough to quit dicking around with his lineups come playoff time. Rain or Shine would have a better chance if this were a one-game knockout, but in a three-game series, Talk N Text just has more talent, and the Elastopainters don't have enough depth.

Prediction: Talk N Text in 3


Semifinals: #1 San Miguel vs. #4 Burger King

Ok, I'm just going to come out and say it: despite their impressive run so far, I don't trust San Miguel. Or perhaps more accurately, I don't trust enough guys on San Miguel. Dondon Hontiveros is a warrior, and I'm sure he'll carry the team, but the rest of the team? Danny Ildefonso has historically sucked in the playoffs, Olsen Racela is washed up, Jay Washington and Mike Cortez always disappear in big games, and you're basically asking Bonbon Custodio and Jonas Villanueva to carry big loads for you. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

On the other hand, Yeng Guiao has a young, athletic team and a steady import, with legit go-to guys in Arwind Santos and Gary David. Over seven games, he should be able to figure out how to dismantle San Miguel, and he has all the tools to do it.

Prediction: Burger King in 6


Semifinals: #2 Ginebra vs. #6 Talk N Text

Like I said before, Jong Uichico is criminally underrated as a coach, perhaps because he started out as Ron Jacobs' protege, but he really has come into his own. For this series, he needs to find a way to take the air out of the ball to contain Talk N Text's high-octane offense, and he's smart enough to do that. Plus, he's got the best import in the conference in David Noel, who's a tough matchup for the Phone Pals.

I am excited about this series too, just for the amount of hate the baranggay will heap upon Mac Cardona. Douchebag.

Prediction: Ginebra in 6


Finals: #2 Ginebra vs. #4 Burger King

This is a rematch of last year's Fiesta Conference final, and hopefully it should be just as exciting. The difference will be David Noel, who should be too big, too fast, and too good for anyone that Burger King throws at him.

Prediction: Ginebra in 7