Talk N Text versus Ginebra: 2011 PBA Commissioner’s Cup Finals forecast

Posted by Jaemark Tordecilla on April 27, 2011 at 17:51 | Comments (23)

Here’s what’s going to happen: Talk N Text will win this series handily. Ginebra will be able to steal one or two games, probably through sheer force of will by Nate Brumfield or Mark Caguioa aided by the tactical brilliance of Jong Uichico. But while I will be rooting for the underdogs here in the finals, I can’t imagine this series ending without Manny Pangilinan and his Tropang Texters holding up their second straight championship trophy.

Talk N Text has been the class of the conference so far, winning 11 straight games after losing to Smart Gilas in its tournament opener. Chot Reyes’ boys have been running its opponents to the ground – the numbers, as crunched by Edwin Cano of the Pasa Ball blog, back up the scouting report of TNT’s dominance – and they will be too talented, too deep, too big, too quick, too poised, and too well-coached to blow this series.

All this isn’t to say that this won’t be a fun series, because it will be. Ginebra fans will pack the venues to the rafters to act as sixth man for their team. Guys like Caguioa, Ronald Tubid, and Rudy Hatfield will leave everything on the court. Caguioa and Willie Miller could catch fire and make something special happen, to feed the frenzy of its “homecourt” crowd.

So Ginebra will lose, but they are going to go down fighting, and they’re going to put an effort worthy of their fans’ support. And really, that ought to be the point, because if all you care about as a basketball fan are the wins and the losses and the trophies and the balloons, then that’s a very sad way to live out your basketball fandom.

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Tags: Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings, Basketball, Philippine Basketball Association, Talk N Text Tropang Texters, Willie Miller

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#1 Gins on 2011-04-27 18:32 (Reply)

Jaemark,
i hope you are wrong but all logic points and basketball knowledge to you being right. but i really hope you are wrong haha
TNT is a relentless, unforgiving machine of a basketball team. this is NOT the TNT team that walked out on the Gins in the last series they played. I believe Ginebra's best chance lies in stealing 2 games at the start of the series. The King's best chance, aside from an improbable sweep, lies in extending the series to a 7th and deciding game.
Hoping for a BGK victory and championship.
It is better to be lucky than good.

#2 BGK Fan on 2011-04-27 18:34 (Reply)

Mr. Henson, it's obvious that your a TnT fan. We'll see if your forecast is true. The way Ginebra is playing right now, TnT must be in great danger.

#2.1 Gins on 2011-04-27 18:36 (Reply)

Wow. Mr. Henson ba kamo?

#2.2 Pahiya onti. on 2011-04-27 18:44 (Reply)

Brad. Ngayon ka lang ba napadpad dito? Unang una hindi yan si Quinito Henson. Pangalawa hindi TNT ang team nya, BMEG sa pagkaka alam ko. Pangatlo naintindihan mo ba ang sinulat nya? Analyze mo nga mabuti di yung dada ka nang dada dyan. Kinakabahan ka na ba sa TNT? LOL. "TNT must be in great danger." LOL. Sa nilala ng BGK na dikit lang ang mga panalo sa Gilas? Baliktad ata pre, baka BGK ang nasa panganib. TNT is on winning streak with 11 straight wins. :))

#2.3 SanchoPanza on 2011-04-28 03:43 (Reply)

Nagyayabang ka na nga lang, mali ka pa. Hindi siya si Quinito Henson. Magbasa ka nga muna about the site bago ka magpuputak diyan!!!

#2.4 jtag on 2011-04-28 14:00 (Reply)

reading is fundamental.

#3 Pasa Ball on 2011-04-27 20:27 (Reply)

Thanks much J, for the linking with my post!
Next item on the list - how good and strong is Ginebra's sixth man?

#4 Tom on 2011-04-27 21:48 (Reply)

To be honest, I am not really looking forward to this series. I would have preferred Air 21 versus Smart Gilas for the championship.

Ginebra and TNT are both stacked teams with good coaches, their imports are shoo ins to win the best import award.

Maybe I am just bored seeing the same SMC, MVP team roll calls and would really like something more unpredictable. But that is just me.

My prediction will be like Jaemark's, TNT will manhandle Ginebra much like TNT manhandled SMB in the previous conference. It may seem tight but after all is said and done TNT will be victorious.

TNT has the better local players, Alapag, K. Williams, De Ocampo, Carey and the others will be too much for the Ginebra squad. The Gin Kings' hope will be their import Brumfield, who carried the Ginebrea team on his shoulders when they beat Smart Gilas. It will remain to be seen if he has enough to beat TNT in a 7 game series. Ginebra will be very lucky if they reach 7 games, but even if they manage that they will lose.

TNT will only beat themselves if they play half heartedly, if they took it easy and not pushing Ginebra to its limits. But in full strength, barring any freak injuries, TNT should beat Ginebra.

TNT should just replicate what they did with Air21, which was play full pressure games and not letting up. They swept Air21, Air 21 did not even know what hit them. TNT should just employ the same strategy and the championship is theirs.

#4.1 2kboy on 2011-04-28 22:01 (Reply)

+ 1 dito, kung sa PC overkill ang TNT, mas maganda ata IMBA, sweep incoming...

#4.2 Ziggy Stardust on 2011-04-30 21:46 (Reply)

while I agree that I would like to see more times in the finals (instead of the usual MVP SMC teams)

I am strongly against Air21 appearing in the finals, while I may have nothing against the players and coach of air21 (matter of fact I am quite a fan of the ex beer men) I despise the management of Air21 who has done nothing but to make a mockery of not just the air21 brand but a team in the PBA. their mediocrity and selfishness should not be awarded and it is only right for them to be blamed whenever Air21 does poorly in a pba conference. What do you think would happen to them if they win a championship?

#5 sunday_skelter on 2011-04-27 22:14 (Reply)

size wise gins cant match up with tnt. tnt can have single coverage on brumfield with carey, de ocampo and williams and can double him at some point. for the longest time ginebra depended on its guards to deliver plus one dominant big man. tnt can slow done the lone dominant big of gins which is nate. dont expect yancy or billy or menk to give a lot with tnt's size, that's not even mentioning peek there.

harris will be the match up crisis for ginebra. tubid will be too small and if you put hatfield that will take away rebounds from ginebra.

backcourt, well caguioa has resurrected but if cortez , miller and tubid can't help him, that will be ginebra's demise. alapag on a good offensive night can shoot the light's out, same with larry. then you still have castro and ryan. if ginebra can pull something from intal or john or jimbo or rob, it will be a plus for the kings.

to end, i'll say the team that has established its identity since last confy will hoist that trophy. you can say ginebra's that good they beat the hell out of gilas but i dont think they are still looking for their true identity and much more, they really need a big man they can rely on scoring and rebounds. tnt has assembled a team that will embody their identity of run n gun. they recruited players that will fit well to chot's system. you can't say the same for ginebra..at least for now...

#6 paoceldran on 2011-04-27 23:06 (Reply)

Well, there goes game one. Ginebra got the snot, living daylights, crap, and sh!t beaten out of them by the TnT marauders. First half was exciting, but after that ... a disappointing snoozefest.

Nate Brumfield was completely and utterly shutdown. Unlike in Gilas, there are no softy bigs on the TnT roster. Harris, Carey, Williams, Peek, Ranidel, Alvarez, hell, let's throw in Gilbert Lao in there. All these guys can dish out a mugging that can make New York thugs blush.

#7 APE on 2011-04-27 23:20 (Reply)

If TNT wins the championship, cool, I can live with that.

But for PAUL HARRIS to win BEST IMPORT over Nate Brumfield?! That's highway robbery.

#7.1 Jkc on 2011-04-28 13:44 (Reply)

I don't know but Paul Harris winning the Best Import Award is not impossible. Nate has three off nights already while Harris is playing with consistency. Let's just wait and see who among them will be the Best Import Awardee.

#7.1.1 APE on 2011-04-29 21:39 (Reply)

Yeah, lets just wait. I think they'll award it in Game 4. I just can't get over the fact that his own coach (chot reyes) is blasting him publicly for not playing defense and slacking off in rebounding.

#8 Jobert Balbastro on 2011-04-29 00:11 (Reply)

That BGK fan made us BGK fans look bad. dammit! lol.

Anyway, If Ginebra has a chance in winning this series, it should be rooted to:

1. Playing time and performance of Intal - I may not have the materials with me, but Intal plays better against TNT.

2.Tubid should be making more sign of the crosses- that means he must produce more points together with Caguioa and Miller.

3. Shut down not only Alapag but Ryan Reyes. -He just killed it in game 1.

I dunno why some people in the media would say this is an evenly matched up series. I may be a big BGK fan but I'm not blind. Clearly TNT has the bigger advantage.

As for us BGK fans, all we can do is hope, pray and never say die.

#9 St.Michael on 2011-04-30 18:27 (Reply)

a safe bet will be on TNT...
a safe forecast would be TNT in 6..
but as we all know,
being too safe is aint that FUN..
i'll go with the BGK (am i biased being a BGK fan? lol)
ranting that GINEBRA will steal the show in 6..
or maybe 7 for GINEBRA fans' delight..=)

and for the badges?
a split would be fun..
BPC for MC47
BI for HARRIS (though i would want nate to have this one..it's not too late though)

Never say die for my 'underdogs'=P

#10 sundayskelter on 2011-05-01 06:17 (Reply)

best import race should be tight but nate should have a slight edge due to his past dominating performance. his two off nights though is crucial. BPC, hands down should be to mark caguioa. hell if bgk enters at least the semis next confy, give caguioa his long overdued MVP plum.

bgk back court tubid, miller should show up and not rely on rookies to save their a**es. wilsons did a fine job with harris making tubid look like a non sense defender. alapag wont be absent on the series for too long. menk is back and suddenly the series is interesting. what's more interesting, what will miller become should bgk loss the series as his defining moments so far are all but missing free throws again.

#11 overnaman on 2011-05-01 22:51 (Reply)

Ba't naman overdue yung MVP citation kay Caguioa? Halos 1/2 ng pamamalagi niya sa PBA injured siya. Paano mo pararangalan ang player na laging di nakakumpleto ng isang buon season.

Magaling si Caguioa pero di niya tulad yung mga nag-MVP na halos isang buong taon at walang palya ang nilaro sa isabng buong season.

I have nothing against with "The Spark" as a PBA fan natutuwa nga ako sa pagbabalik ng bangis ng larlo niya, pero to say that naming him as MVP of the league had been long overdue, eh overkill naman yata yun.

At this point of conference walang klarong pangalan ang masasabing convincingly deserving to be the MVP. TNT had to win the series before Jimmy could be the fore-runner of the race but actually quite not convincing (yet) since he didn't play better than Washington, Devance, Tenorio or even David last conference & the present. So far this season, Jimmy is good individually (but not better than any name I mentioned) BUT HE'S just lucky that his team had a back-to-back finals appearance & a championship. Malaking pasasalamat talaga sa teammates niya.

We can't count out Jwash, Tenorio, Devance yet what if they champ their team next conference while consistently playing great.

Along those three The Spark and The Mighty Mouse had their chances to take home the MVP trophy but 3rd conference would still be crucial.

As for BPC, I agree it should be Caguioa.

#11.1 Nomad on 2011-05-02 09:01 (Reply)

remember the 2nd MVP of Miller? That should have been Cauigoa's.

#11.1.1 OVERNAMAN on 2011-05-02 09:48 (Reply)

Caguioa could have got it, pero di whole season ng PBA ang nilaro niya since he was loaned to RP-TEAM in a way he had sacrifice his chances.

Aren't Willie deserving?

He also champ his team that season, and played great basketball (individually) the "WHOLE" season. Even his team didn't made it to the Finals on the 1st conference, his performance the whole season merits him to have that trophy.

Kung may mas karapat-dapat man na makakuha nung award maliban kay Miller si CARDONA yun since he played tremendous the whol season and even managed to help his team reach the SEMIS on the 1st conf and the Finals on the 2nd conference.

#11.2 booh rah oat on 2011-05-02 14:17 (Reply)

"pero to say that naming him as MVP of the league had been long overdue, eh overkill naman yata yun."

right on! those years na hindi siya ang nanalo bilang mvp (kung dapat nga siyang bigyan ng mvp award) ay tama lang. mas marami sa kasaysayan ng pba ang mas dapat bigyan ng mvp award na hindi nabigyan kaysa sa kanya - nelson asaytono, dindo pumaren, jojo lastimosa, jerry codiñera, vic pablo, kahit nga si ronnie magsanoc pa eh. ikumpara mo naman ang mga narating at nabigay ng mga iyan kay caguioa.

#11.2.1 Jobert Balbastro on 2011-05-07 00:44 (Reply)

"nelson asaytono, dindo pumaren, jojo lastimosa, jerry codiñera, vic pablo, kahit nga si ronnie magsanoc pa eh. "

These guys had numerous championships. I'm not so sure if Vic Pablo had "numerous" ones though. Ano na ba ang "narating" ng mga above mentioned players compared say to the Caguioas, Alapags and other players who had earned championships but no MVP awards yet?

The point is, kung basehan lang natin eh championships, I think Caguioa can fare better than the others mentioned above.