True or False: 2011 PBA Commissioner’s Cup

Posted by Jaemark Tordecilla on February 18, 2011 at 14:50 | Comments (18)

Kelly Williams and Jay Washington battle for the loose ball

Listed below are ten statements about the PBA Commissioner's Cup, which kicks off tonight with the Ginebra-Meralco game in Laoag City. In the comments, leave a post on whether you think each statement is true or false, and a short explanation why this is so.

Smart Gilas will win more than half their games in the tournament

Rain or Shine’s Hassan Adams will win the best import award.

The Powerade Tigers will end the tournament in last place.

Air 21’s Rabeh Al-Hussaini will lead all locals in scoring in the tournament.

Willie Miller will start most of the games for Ginebra.

Either Hans Thiele or Paolo Bugia will become regular members of the Alaska rotation.

Sol Mercado will struggle to fit in alongside Mac Cardona and Chris Ross in the Meralco backcourt.

Kerby Raymundo will regain his all-star form for the Derby Ace Llamados.

Jay Washington will win his third straight best player of the conference award.

Talk N Text will make it to the finals of the Commissioner’s Cup.

My answers:

False. I think Smart Gilas will lose not because it is a bad team, but because the squad will be shorthanded; injuries and school commitments have ravaged the Smart Gilas roster. Insiders tell me that this is the reason they’ve had to sign Borgie Hermida to fill up their roster.

False. I do think Adams will be the most impressive import in the bunch along with Talk N Text’s Paul Harris, but I don’t think Rain or Shine has enough frontcourt depth to go far in the tournament.

True. The only thing that’s been keeping this team out of the cellar all these years has been the presence of Barako. It’s a damn shame, really, because this team has the resources to be competitive, and yet they make the most stupid basketball decisions.

True. Consider that the team also lost Ronjay Buenafe, its second leading scorer. Much of the scoring burden will fall on their import and on Al-Hussaini, the second overall pick who was fifth in scoring in the Philippine Cup.

True. It won’t be because he’s better than Mark Caguioa, but because the Spark plays just as well whether he starts or comes off the bench.

False. Forget about the triangle; Alaska runs some of the most complex defensive schemes in the PBA, and I don’t think he’d trust two frontcourt newbies if he’s not comfortable that they can execute them.

True. One ball between Mercado and Cardona? That might not be enough. I see Mercado playing an off-the-bench role for Ryan Gregorio initially, like he did with Peter June Simon for James Yap back in Purefoods. Maybe he’ll figure out how to play the two scorers together in the future though.

False. Kerby has been out for a while now, and it’s gonna be a while until he gets his rhythm back. My deepest fear as a Purefoods fan is that he never gets his old game back. It’s a damn shame for basketball fans that we might never see the Kerby Raymundo from the 2007 Fiba-Asia Championships in Tokushima back.

True. It’s a very short tournament – single-round robin eliminations, best-of-five semifinals – so a deep, talented team like San Miguel has the edge, and we all know J-Wash puts up numbers. Whether he carries his team to a championship is another matter though.

True. Chot Reyes, curiously, has a history of doing well in back-to-back conferences in a three-conference season. Back in 1993, he made it to the Commissioner’s Cup finals after winning the All-Filipino, before losing to Swift which featured Ronnie Thompkins. The next year, his Purefoods team lost to San Miguel in the All-Filipino, but bounced back to win the Commissioner’s Cup title with Mr. Triple-Double Kenny Redfield reinforcing the team.

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Tags: Air 21 Express / Burger King Whoppers, Alaska Aces, B-MEG Derby Ace Llamados / Purefoods Tender Juicy Giants, Barako Bull Energy Boosters / Barako Energy Coffee Masters, Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings, Jay Washington, Kerby Raymundo, Mac Cardona, Meralco Bolts, Philippine Basketball Association, Powerade Tigers / Coca-Cola Tigers, San Miguel Beermen, Smart Gilas Pilipinas National Basketball Team, Sol Mercado, Talk N Text Tropang Texters

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Comments

#1 sirjhay on 2011-02-18 15:32 (Reply)

1. false. national teams win in international stage because their play and schemes aren't studied that carefully. in the pro league, teams will study them, dissect them, and eat them alive.

2. false. painters won't make it to the playoffs, and playoff teams win best import awards.

3. false. powerade will likely stay at 9th place again. 8th 9th and last place will be battled by gilas, powerade, and air21.

4. true. other teams have multiple scoring threats. air21 does only have rabeh.

5. false. unless a pair combo of jayjay, mark the spark, and mike cortez hurt, miller will likely start.

6. false. it will take them three or four more conferences to have a regular spot in the rotation, similar to mark borboran.

7. true. they might even throw bombs at each other.

8. true. spare him for his bad games, if ever, on his first two or three games, then he'll be back.

9. true. if smb reaches the semis, then most likely j wash will win. joe devance could have won philippine cup bpc if only jdv's team reached the semis.

10. true. they even look fresher than smb in that finals series last time, so they might take it all the way ONLY to the finals but not the championship.

#2 gilazkalz on 2011-02-18 15:46 (Reply)

i agree smart gilas will be shorthanded and plaques by injuries, but they will increase the gate attendance of PBA.

ABS CBN giant is a good media partner at least PBA and Gilas ay makaka-share sa limelight ang Phil Azkals....like uaap and ncaa gagawing exciting ng abs cbn ang PBA games..unlike the crappy vhf channels.

Alaska and talk n text will be the team to beat..

Hoping PBA ay mag regionalize at magkaroon ng home and away court like NBA...Unlimited height for imports at wag ng magkaroon height ceiling at wag din tipirin ang bayad sa imports.

like NBA let the foreign players be able to play in the PBA.,like gasol,yao ming,ginobili,arroyo,scola and tony parker sa NBA.

#2.1 jaemark on 2011-02-18 15:59 (Reply)

"i agree smart gilas will be shorthanded and plaques by injuries, but they will increase the gate attendance of PBA."

Heh. Hindi nga mapuno ng Smart Gilas ang Ninoy Aquino Stadium.

#2.1.1 gilazkalz on 2011-02-18 16:26 (Reply)

"i agree smart gilas will be shorthanded and plaques by injuries, but they will increase the gate attendance of PBA."

Heh. Hindi nga mapuno ng Smart Gilas ang Ninoy Aquino Stadium

--------
agree ako ulet because the popularity of basketball is really declining...filipino people are turning into billiards,badminton,boxing, and now football...

sino ba halos na nonood ng PBA ngayon mga baby boomers fans ng Ginebra at derby ace.

People are dissappointed of RP Powerade and now the performance of smart gilas...at least the PBA board remove Mr.Barrios na masyadong old school ang mentality...akala niya existing pa ang Toyota at Crispa sa PBA ngayon....He didn't realize that the resurrection of Philippine basketball lies on the national team campaign.

The PBA ngayon hindi gaya ng mga rivalries noong araw at least dito sa abs cbn ma-repcakge ang PBA at mabibigyan ng bagong mukha ang Pro basketball league...

im hoping that fans flocked in panaad stadium will do the same in Araneta every PBA games......kahit mag-increase pa ng 80,000 sitting capacities di magkaka-interes ang pinoy sa iba't ibang bahagi ng Pilipinas....

Yung mga squatters,jologs and jejemon lang ata sa metro Manila ang manood sa Araneta pag finals lang......Di nila kayang punuin ang araneta like the middle class crowds during la salle-ateneo game dahil mas may buying power sila compare to the masa crowd of ginebra.

#2.1.1.1 LegendHarry on 2011-02-18 17:04 (Reply)

unless magpamudmud ulit ng kung ano anong freebies ang tnt or aa or non smc teams, any finals without any of bmeg, smb and bgk squaring will be a massive flop.

at kahit anong negative comment ang mga non-smc fans, that's the reality and that's the only way, so far, to have a blockbuster finals series.

#3 Major Tom on 2011-02-18 15:54 (Reply)

1. True, I think SG with douthit is good enough to beat powerade, air21, bmeg, meralco on a consistent basis, they might probably beat BGK as well and Alaska if they showed the same intensity they had last time.

2. I think he will, RoS is good enough to be at the final four this conference. and their front court is quite good actually, better than the majority of the league that is.
all of which are YG type of guys.

3. True, as much as I like Gary David their roster Is pretty much empty right now.

4. False, The loss of Ronjay will certainly tighten the interior D on Air21 besides, is kuya Carlo enough to encourage Rabeh to play just as well as last time?

5. True, Uichico rarely makes adjustments his mentality fits quite well with his bosses who believe that players should be judged by their face value

6. True, maybe Thiele will, lately Tim Cone has been having an obsession with energy guys, Bon Bon, Elmer. and now Thiele. sure Elmer has yet to play major minutes but look at how thin Alaska has become at the 4, not to mention Tim Cone doesn't like to play small ball.

7. True, Cardona will be more efficient but Ross and Sol's production will sure take a massive dip.

8. False, Kerby has been out for almost an eternity now, saying Kerby will struggle now and return to prime form next conference is the best case scenario for him.

9. True, I really can't think of anyone who produces enough numbers more than him, not to mention with the intensity that he showed in the losing effort against TnT, expect him to perform well, even in crunch time this conference.

10. True, unless Alaska is determined to take back their throne I really can't see anyone else beating these guys on a series.

#4 jojo on 2011-02-18 16:04 (Reply)

1. False. Gilas will be bullied by PBA Veterans
2. False. Imports with good credentials usually fails in the PBA
3. True. They are the worst team in the PBA
4. False. Gary David will be the scoring champ. He is the only one who knows how to shoot in that powerade lineup and he shoots a lot
5. True. Due to injuries to jayjay and cortez
6. True. To thiele only because of his nice midrange shot. It is important in alaskas offense that their bigman has this kind of offensive arsenal
7. False. Not cardona only but every team that has sol mercado in its lineup will suffer. a shoot first pointguard that know only 2 kinds of shot. A 3 point shot and a layup.
8. True. If he's fully recovered. You can never count out a good player
9. False. I think that the BPC will be Joe de Vance if they advance to the finals
10. False. It will be Ginebra vs Alaska in the Finals. Thats my fearless forecast.

#5 ftjo on 2011-02-18 16:32 (Reply)

1. False, but barely.
2. False. He won't have enough games.
3. Oh. So. True.
4. False. David. Cardona. And then maybe Rabeh. Maybe.
5. True.
6. False. Borboran and Eman could be first bigs off bench
7. False.
8. True. But he'll have a new dimension to his game.
9. True.
10. True.

#6 swaggerbox on 2011-02-18 16:57 (Reply)

1. TRUE. Smart Gilas will be competitive because they have 6'10" Marcus Douthit.

2. FALSE. My crystal ball tells me a more explosive import (a replacement) will be named Best Import of the tourney.

3. FALSE. Air21 will end up last.

4. FALSE. Gary David will lead all local scorers.

5. TRUE. Willie Miller will start. It won't be long when the Spark gets sidelined by an injury.

6. TRUE. Hans Thiele is a workhorse and will play a role similar to that of BGK's Willie Wilson.

7. FALSE. I think Sol Mercado, Mac Cardona and Chris Ross can co-exist in the Meralco backcourt. Their competitive spirit and winner's mentality will carry the Bolts to greater heights this season.

8. TRUE. It will take time for Kerby to regain his All-Star form, but he will (maybe in the latter part of the season). His game is not predicated on athleticism.

9. TRUE. I can't think of any player who comes close to his playing performance right now.

10. TRUE. Talk N Text has the tools and the management support to make it back-to-back.

#7 LegendHarry on 2011-02-18 17:04 (Reply)

False. Kerby has been out for a while now, and it’s gonna be a while until he gets his rhythm back. My deepest fear as a Purefoods fan is that he never gets his old game back. It’s a damn shame for basketball fans that we might never see the Kerby Raymundo from the 2007 Fiba-Asia Championships in Tokushima back.

----

so true, jae. after the tokushima games, his game began to dip rather slowly. di man pansin yun sa ibang casual fans.

well, if he could emulate cap alvin, who reinvented his game when the great invasion of fil-fors and fil-shams happened, then he could prolong his career and at least help the llamados into winning more championships.

ang tanong: kaya niya kayang gawin yun? at kayang tanggapin yung reality na ganun? sana lang.

#7.1 jaemark on 2011-02-18 17:14 (Reply)

I think with Kerby, the dip in his game was caused by all those nagging injuries he's been playing through; it was his body breaking down and failing him. Remember, he's been in the league since 2000. He's only a year older than James Yap, but he's played so much more games.

Maybe this long break will revitalize him, but I doubt if he can still be All-Star. Hopefully he can play a role like Danny Ildefonso does with San Miguel.

#7.1.1 workhorse3 on 2011-02-18 18:11 (Reply)

parang caguioa lang. a conference (or season long) away from line-up will show in your game. or maybe I'm romanticizing caguioa as the same caguioa who played at his peak in 04-07. pero for his age at 30, parang padecline na yung game nya. same goes with Kerby.

#7.1.1.1 jaemark on 2011-02-18 18:15 (Reply)

Actually, Caguioa's turning 32 this November

#7.1.2 LegendHarry on 2011-02-18 20:54 (Reply)

tama ka. he played so many games way above his age bracket.

it would be a welcome development if he would accept that role. after all, 2 multiple MVPs have done that and he had witnessed it first hand with cap alvin and now with DI.

gayahin lang din niya yung idol niyang si garnett. from franchise player to 2nd or 3rd man in the pecking order.

#8 j on 2011-02-19 15:01 (Reply)

1.False
2.False, if TNT can reach the finals Harris could probably win it.
3. False. I think it would be Air21
4. False. Gary David
5. True. pero most of the time wala na siya sa end games, hehe kung natuto Ginebra.
6. True. Hans' game naman sa PBA is better kay espiritu so baka pwede.
7.True.
8. False. hehe mag fafake nang injury uli yan pag naisipan niya e.
9. True
10. True

#9 Mysterious Blue Eagle Man `97 on 2011-02-21 16:12 (Reply)

1. False. For the same reason

2. False. Not unless the Painters go deep into the season. Which they won't.

3. True. Just not enough players. Sayang kasi hanep si Gary David and Asi works hard.

4. False. Kulang pa sa consistency si Rabeh. He will be among the top scorers and on some nights will lead all scorers. But I expect that once defenses adjust to stop him, there aren't enough options to help him out.

5. True.

6. Maybe Hans Thiele. Bugia? He's a decent player but he's never really been more than a secondary role player at best. Then again, Alaska's system worked wonders for Poch Junio.

7. True. Something's got to give.

8. False. Even if he eventually does, this won't be the conference where it happens.

9. False. My bets are Jason Castro, LA Tenorio, Joe DeVance or James Yap. J Wash will still be in the running though.

10. False. I think it's Alaska's turn.

#9.1 Mysterious Blue Eagle Man `97 on 2011-02-21 23:55 (Reply)

Regarding number 3:

Ay ang bobo ko. Wala na nga pala si Asi sa Powerade. Meralco na pala. Nalito ako. Well, at best we can replace Asi with Espino in that sentence. Won't make much of a difference sa results.

#10 workhorse3 on 2011-05-16 19:27 (Reply)

how about an assessment of your predictions in the recently concluded Commish Cup? We didn't see the Air21 trade coming. haha. I'd like to see what's coming for Gov's Cup.