In previous installments of this column, we discussed the basics of sports betting, and your options on where to bet. Today we wade into the deeper end of the pool to talk about betting strategies in time for today’s start of the Philippine Cup quarterfinals. Not all match-ups are created equal, but make no mistake about it, wagering on the games isn’t any less fun.

Betting on playoff games is a bit different from betting on games in the elimination rounds. In cases where there are home and away teams, sports books adjust the lines to account for homecourt advantage. The adjustment ranges from a few points (or percent) for the home team – except in cases like the Lakers versus the Clippers – or a total turnaround.

Extreme cases of homecourt advantage happen in baseball and football, because of the different conditions in each venue. Expert bettors keep track of these details, like which fields have strong headwinds, fierce snow, and other weather-related advantages, and which months these occur. Also, certain venue allow for higher or lower scoring, as is the case in baseball where the dimensions of each ballpark is different. Doing deeper research would lead to certain discoveries like Team A scores badly on Team B’s home court or field.

Of course, in the PBA, none of these really matter, except perhaps in the case of Ginebra, which always has homecourt advantage. So for betting in the PBA games, it really helps to know each of the teams and to watch closely what happens in each game of the series.

Another important factor to note is that in a series, the advantage of the favorite over the underdog decreases over the course of the series, if all other things remain constant.

Now here are my picks for today’s PBA quarterfinals games.

(4) Derby Ace vs. (5) Meralco

Previous results:
92-73 Derby Ace (12/8)
75-71 Derby Ace (10/20)

My pick: Derby Ace (-5) over Meralco

Owing to a more balanced line-up, more team familiarity, and their unbeaten record against the other this year, Derby Ace are 5-point favorites to win Game 1, and the series, despite the fact that Meralco has clearly benefitted from recent trades with league doormat Barako Bull. Mac Cardona is hurting (as opined by my dad) and they just came off a 3OT game. Derby Ace has had a week to rest and prepare for the series. Don’t expect another blowout like last week, though. The only way Meralco’s gonna win, however, is kung pa-pogian lang ng coach ang labanan.

(3) Ginebra vs. (6) Alaska

Previous result:
79-68 Ginebra (11/14)

My pick:
Alaska (+3.5) over Ginebra
Alaska moneyline

(Editor’s note: Ronald is an Alaska fan.)

I was hoping international bookies would tag Ginebra as an overwhelming favorite in the series. The Gin Kings finished 3rd in the eliminations, though they could easily have been 1st or 2nd had they not lost a couple of squeakers against sister team San Miguel. Alaska, while having arguably the best starting five in the league, has been notorious this season for fourth quarter meltdowns. However, Alaska is a tough team to beat in a series. Expect Game 1 to go the Aces’ way with a lot of chumps betting on Ginebra, which are -3.5 favorites. The money line (2.36) is also a good bet for Alaska. This is the best (and closest) matchup of the quarterfinals set and it will go down to the wire.

Extra pick: Over 169 points

Ronald Po is a former UP professor and a sports betting enthusiast. Ang Sugarol, his regular series on sports betting, comes out every Friday. Follow him on Twitter at @AngSugarol.